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Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE! Intraday Market Insights |
:: Tuesday, October 15, 2002 ::
8:59 PM
MARKETWRAP Another nice day of gains, but tomorrow may not seem as nice, particularly for INTC, which of course influences all indices.
The rumour mill had it right, and they came in 2 cents under consensus. The overnight market is reflecting the effect with the SP500 down almost 9 points from the close and the NDX down 24 as of this writing.
We do find ourselves very overbought in the short term as expected and since expiration Wednesday's usually reverse Tuesday's action we can anticipate added weakness tomorrow. ......not that a rest isn't well deserved after 4 days of gains. watch 8175 for a downside break tomorrow on the DOW.
As you can see we are right up against the 50day moving average on the DOW which we saw as our target, and should now be ready for a Fibonacci retracement.
So...keep your powder dry, but we DO think this is the time to be buying on dips.
:: Henry Ford ::
3:32 PM
UPDATEBeen away from the computer the last few hours and my alarms haven't gone off, so markets haven't gone anywhere. I expect that we go out near the highs and wait for INTC news after the bell...SP is right at the 50Day Moving average line...Will be back this evening with outlook and charts.
:: Henry Ford ::
12:48 PM
UPDATEThis consolidation in a narrow range at the highs ususlly leads to more strength which we think will be the attack on those upper resistance lines and 50 day moving average.
:: Henry Ford ::
10:43 AM
UPDATE I do expect these indices to work their way higher towards resistance today before any pullback.
:: Henry Ford ::
10:08 AM
UPDATE
As you can see from the daily chart of the SP500 Futures, we are approaching both the 50 day moving average line as well as the declining tops line from the intermediate time period. This should be a natural point for a pause to refresh and retracement before continuing on to higher highs.
Here is the same view for the DOW
:: Henry Ford ::
10:03 AM
UPDATE Tonight, all eyes will be on INTC earnings which have always been a market driver. Some quarters are saying that INTC will come in light.
:: Henry Ford ::
9:58 AM
UPDATE We now have two gaps up. So far we have a termendous surge caused by short covering and momentum players who piled on. At some point the momentum players will call it quits and book profits which should cause a reversal. This is options expirations week, so anything goes between now and Friday. I expect that Friday will be pretty calm and that all of the activity will take place in the next two days as positions are balanced ahead of normal expirations.
:: Henry Ford ::
9:45 AM
UPDATE
:: Henry Ford ::
9:30 AM
KEY TIMES DURING THE MARKET DAY FOR TRADERS
As you will see, there are key times that we look for during the trading day as being pivotal. Most days, the action centers around those times. Other times of the day are more suitable for a trip to the gas station or lawn bowling; Here are the pivot times we look at for signs of life: (All times are EST)
9:30-9:50...Approx first 20 minutes of trading day. Time when beginning traders lose money on whipsaws and experienced ones capture quick profits. Avoid if you are the former.
9:50-10:10..Oftimes a period of reversal for early morning trades. Market begins to settle into reality as early morning traders take their profits and swing traders look for opportunities.
10:10 to 10:25...usually a continuation of whatever trend was set up in last period.
10:25-10:35 ...A decision point for traders. Many times a turning point reversal or accelerated continuation of previous setup.
11:15-2:00...go bowling...this is the "dangerous time of day" . Traders lunch out and scalpers try to push the indices around to make a quarter here or there.
2:00-2:30...market usually begins to pick up steam:
2:30-3:00...called the 3:00 bubble, even on weak days can show strength into the next pivot point
3:05..if last period was just a bubble, will begin to break here, Otherwise can be a good pivot point.
3:25-3:35...for trending days, this is the time when trends tend to play out
3:40-3:45...can see reversals or acceleration into the close. Reason is that all floor traders have their MOC orders in and everyone has a pretty good idea where the closing range will be.
:: Henry Ford ::
9:28 AM
CIRCUIT BREAKERS & CURBS
Here is the latest source for Curvs & Circuit Breakers when we have big move days. Good resource to copy or print out.
http://www.cboe.com/resourcecenter/pdflibrary/circuit100102.pdf
:: Henry Ford ::
9:08 AM
UPDATE The open will be typified by massive sort covering as positive earnings on GM ,FNM,C & JNJ and better than expected news for MO, BP,AOL,SFA and GPS updgrades. Big Gap open with NAZ futures up 33.5, DOW Futures up 233 and SP500 Futures up 24. This is options expirations week, so be careful. Business Inventories at 8:30 came in light at -.1% vs +.2% consensus.
:: Henry Ford ::