:: Wednesday, July 16, 2003 ::

7/16/2003 06:12:41 PM
WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE... Highest volume day since Mid June for the NYSE with little comparative loss was the result of buyers coming into the market at support and buying up during the last hour. This is a good sign for the intermediate term.




The DOW and SP500 have closed their major gaps, but the NAZ still has a couple below the current market.


Notice also that we are still within an upward sloping channel, although at the bottom of support.

Barring any significant economic or earnings news, I am looking for today's support levels to hold and volatility to slow tomorrow. There is usually a little setup that takes place in the last trading hour of the day for the actual options expirations of Friday morning.





:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 03:00:45 PM
UPDATE...Prices have consolidated in narrow range over the last five hours.
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 03:00:19 PM
UPDATE...

:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 02:13:07 PM
UPDATE... Prices have stagnated at 50% Fibonaci retracements of 7/1 low to 7/14 high.
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 01:00:21 PM
SWING TRADE UPDATE... Setting up for a SwingTrade exit on our two short trades...the SP and the QQQ. Will update the table at 1:05
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 12:50:21 PM
MOMENTUM SYSTEM UPDATE... I have been consumed for the last couple of weeks with coming up with a sensible stop algorithm for the Momentum Long trading system. I generally have opposed stops because they tend to severely degrade performance, but this last spate of high flyers in particular are ones that have had big spikes that are immediately sold off by the original holders too quickly for the system to identify them as valid shorts or even long exits.

This will be a trailing support stop based on Fibonaccis, so as long as the stock continues to rise, the support stop will rise as well and I will post it along side the price every day so that it can be used to place exit stops, much as I have done with the Short half of the momentum system I wanted to find something that would be easy for users to do themselves, but so far have not found an effective yet simple method.

It is a little late for those stocks that are already in the big loser category, but after this date, any new stocks will have the trailing stops attached.

I will post the first set of stops this evening 7/16/03
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 12:25:15 PM
UPDATE...13 hour RSI levels have dropped to the low 20's and bounced...still too early to call for a short term bottom.
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 11:00:30 AM
UPDATE... As expected, 990 has become the 0-gravity point for the time being on the SP500 futures. Price liable to consolidate here for the time being until we can establish another trading move.
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 10:39:18 AM
UPDATE...Opening hour range on the SP500 was 989 to 1004...quite a range. The 10:35 pivot number came in just above the lows at 991.30. pretty much a straight line decline since the open. We do have some substantial support between 985-990, son not surprising to see a stall here as dip-buyers come in and momentum players are apt to protect short profits.

We pretty much busted the Descending Wedge pattern for now.
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 09:56:08 AM
UPDATE... Opening gaps have quickly been filled, so now we wait and see what the first hour has in store.
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 09:55:26 AM
UPDATE...

:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 09:30:42 AM
TRADER'S CLOCK...

:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 09:25:46 AM
UPDATE... Modest bump up slated for the open this morning. Slightly better than expected Industrial Production number than expected has kept a positive tone going into the open Pre-market Sp up 3.5 and DOW up about 30.

:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 07:30:41 AM
UPDATE... Testing the lows of 7/11
:: Henry Ford ::

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7/16/2003 06:00:54 AM
TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE... Tuesday was a reversal of fortune day as we are often use to seeing during expiration weeks.

At the end of the day all three indices sold off with only the NDX with a remaining gap.

We also saw 13 period RSI's turn and drop right on cue and now appeared to be poised for a swing up from oversold positions tomorrow.






Of more significance is the formation on these hourly and shorter term charts of what appears to be a "DESCENDING WEDGE" Formation which is one of the strongest ones we have in our inventory. If this should be a descending wedge then tomorrow should be another reversal of today's action, again a usual consequence during expirations week.

Ascending and Descending Wedges are some of the most reliable and predictable patterns we follow and as those of you who have read along here daily for a while have seen them play out time after time.

So-o...Here are the stats and we will see how tomorrow plays out.
DECLINING WEDGE FORMATION..one of my favorites
This pattern has a 90% success rate. If you wait for the breakout its success rate rises to 98%. A break of the upper line should ultimately lead to a target of double the height of the current high to low points of the triangle..
About 47% of the time it will pullback (throwback) to the breakout point before going on to its predicted target giving a second chance to get on board. 88% of the time it meets or beats its target level.
The most powerful breakouts occur between 50% and 80% of the distance to the apex (centered around 65%)

The caveat here may be INTC that as predicted beat the street by a penny...surprise, surprise. They did NOT however have soothing words for forward looking guidance.

:: Henry Ford ::

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