Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

4:34 PM
PATTERN STUDIES
Friday I will be starting a little "fill-in" series which I will try to continue every day during the market doldrums period of 12PM -2PM EST. Don't want to insult any old timers here, but will present classic patterns with their percentages of success and failure so we can better identify ideal times for market commitment. The markets are mostly psychological in nature which is why both technical and fundamental analysis works. It doesn't really matter what is cause and effect as long as we can identify those periods where classic supply and demand are in force....Any specific requests, let me know via the feedback link at the top of the page.
:: Henry Ford ::

4:32 PM
TRIAL ENDING
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:: Henry Ford ::

4:25 PM
CLOSING COMMENTS [BRIEFING.COM] The choppy trading continues with the market averages on the move to the upside after yet another flirtation with unchanged territory. While the averages have been bouncing, the sector performance has been relatively stable with biotech, drug, health, software, oil and paper holding decent gains. On the downside have been computer-hardware (AAPL -13.5% downgraded), semiconductor, telecom, consumer finance and telecom. IBM will be a focus after the close as it reports earnings. Other stocks of note scheduled to report are AMD, ASYT, CTXS, EXTR, KFT, MCHP, SLB, SEBL SYMC and UHS. Northrup Grumman (NOC +0.6%) briefly dipped into the red amid reports that they sees 2002 earnings towards the low end of the $6.60-$7.10 range. The current Multex consensus for 2002 is $6.68. The issue has, however, recovered roughly 3% off the low. SOX -1%... DOT +0.8%... XOI +1.2%... BTK +6.7%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1708/1499... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1689/1643
:: Henry Ford ::

3:57 PM
WAITING FOR IBM?Yesterday's excuse by the floor traders was worry about INTC numbers last night...today it seems to be worry over IBM tonight....meanwhile all the POSITIVE earnings are building up a backlog of pressure....
:: Henry Ford ::

3:34 PM
3:30 UPDATEThis a redrawn wedge I have made ignoring the opening gap as an abberation (I can do that...these ARE my charts)...

:: Henry Ford ::

3:16 PM
UPDATEStill no break either way.....
:: Henry Ford ::

2:40 PM
UPDATESo far no volatility...as we approach expirations expect to see some kind of a move here in the next hour and a half.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:13 PM
UPDATEnow forming a wedge under the 32% Fibonacci retracement line. All gaps closed, so nothing to hold us back if we can get the breakout here....
...Expecting a lot of volatility here.
:: Henry Ford ::

12:54 PM
GAP CLOSEDNow the poker game begins...Only DUK/MO/WMB/D/ROAD/KO/BA/UNP remain positive on the day for the DOW stocks. NAZ has 18...most all in the Biotechs
:: Henry Ford ::

12:18 PM
UPDATEGoing into the lunch hour we have a strong DOW holding up while only 11% of industry groups are positive FROM THE OPEN. We calculate from the open as opposed to last night's close like the rest of the world for a truer picture of the day's action.SP still has not closed the hourly gap, so we are hoping the few floor traders that didn't go to lunch will push the SPU2 down and get rid of it so we can get off the dime here. Don't expect anything of any real substance till after the 2-2:30PM return of the floor traders.
:: Henry Ford ::

11:02 AM
UPDATESP Futures trying to fill that houly gap left by the open. If we are going to do it I would rather see it now than later, so not particularly unhappy about that. Plenty of time to launch a new assault on highs.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:37 AM
UPDATEHere is where we are on the SP500 Futures contract. We came back down to the open, but have not made any substantive attack on closing the gap The open breached the 32% retracement off of Monday's lows...the 50% level sits (just coincidentaly) at that 936.50 level, so it is critical resistance in an number of ways, but most importantly the bearish technicians who will see this as the line in the sand at which they will throw in the towel and cover their shorts. This should start a buying panic mirroring some of the selling panic we have seen over the last few weeks. Momentum players will gang up at this point to make short term gains as well.

:: Henry Ford ::

10:03 AM
UPDATE
DOW leaders are AES DUK CNF ROAD AXP D USFC EIX INTC CAT R
NAZ leaders are GENZ ESRX HGSI GILD ICOS IMCL ITWO CEPH SEPR PDLI SYMC MLNM
Leading Industries Textiles/Biotech/Transp/Internet Retail/Construction/Internet Software/Bevrg/
:: Henry Ford ::

10:00 AM
UPDATESP left gap on hourly charts, but not on the daily, so not absolutely necessary to go back and close it although it would relieve any anxiety for a need to retrace. The answer will lie in what occurs after the curbs come off and whether we rally back and above today's high. 8800 on the DOW and 936.50 on the SPU Futures contract are the numbers to watch for confirmation that the bleeding may actually be over. Yesterday was an inside day, so today's rally, if it holds would be confirmation.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:37 AM
LESS THAN 4 MINUTES INTO THE DAY AND CURBS ARE ON TO THE UPSIDE

:: Henry Ford ::

9:31 AM
KEY TIMES DURING THE MARKET DAY FOR TRADERS
As you will see, there are key times that we look for during the trading day as being pivotal. Most days, the action centers around those times. Other times of the day are more suitable for a trip to the gas station or lawn bowling; Here are the pivot times we look at for signs of life: (All times are EST)
9:30-9:50...Approx first 20 minutes of trading day. Time when beginning traders lose money on whipsaws and experienced ones capture quick profits. Avoid if you are the former.
9:50-10:10..Oftimes a period of reversal for early morning trades. Market begins to settle into reality as early morning traders take their profits and swing traders look for opportunities.
10:10 to 10:25...usually a continuation of whatever trend was set up in last period.
10:25-10:35 ...A decision point for traders. Many times a turning point reversal or accelerated continuation of previous setup.
11:15-2:00...go bowling...this is the "dangerous time of day" . Traders lunch out and scalpers try to push the indices around to make a quarter here or there.
2:00-2:30...market usually begins to pick up steam:
2:30-3:00...called the 3:00 bubble, even on weak days can show strength into the next pivot point
3:05..if last period was just a bubble, will begin to break here, Otherwise can be a good pivot point.
3:25-3:35...for trending days, this is the time when trends tend to play out

3:40-3:45...can see reversals or acceleration into the close. Reason is that all floor traders have their MOC orders in and everyone has a pretty good idea where the closing range will be.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:17 AM
GOOD MORNINGNeedless to say a big gap open to the upside this morning. World equity markets expressing relief that Intel guidance was not sharply lower. Concerns about Intel's outlook contributed to dramatic reversal in the SOX late yesterday, which was a major factor in U.S. equity retreat. This morning, U.S. earnings news generally positive, with C, KO, F, FRX, UTX, HET, ASD posting upside.

:: Henry Ford ::

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