Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

6:57 PM
COMMENTARY FOR WEEKEND (much of it repeated from Thursday night...nothing changed)Once again the abject fear in the marketplace froze investors as good news is discounted and unfounded fears affect investor psychology.
I am sure at this point some of you are saying what in the world is there to be bullish about or look for ANY improvement in the markets? ....This week we saw over 400 stocks reporting in the SP500 with 364 meeting or beating the street and only 39 who didn't match expectations. This is the seventh straight month of improvement in economic numbers, but to hear the talking heads on CNBC the country is going in the dumper and we are going into double dip recession...WRONG!!! The markets have dropped over a cliff, but the economy and the nation have not. THIS IS THE BEEF and at some point these folks are going to get the message and start buying the reality. Warren Buffett plunked down a cool bet of 100 mil on telcom this week when the rest of us are doing our best to bury it. The Sheik who insulted Mayor Giuliani and got his 10mil check returned after 911, invested another 500 mil in Citigroup this week considering it an extraordinary value. This is his second buy-in at 500 mil a pop since 911 and Citigroup is what made this man the 9th richest in the world and the major stockholder.....these are not uninformed people.

......A wise man once said "FEAR IS THE DARKROOM WHERE NEGATIVES DEVELOP"

I really find it hard and painful (despite my ever increasing bullish attitude).... to watch day after day for the last few weeks as investors bail and pull their mutual funds out, but I have lived through a few of these. I have to admit this is the worst one psychologically, because of the slow grinding nature as we try to set a bottom, but this is the way good bottoms are formed. It IS painful...but it is equally painful to be left out when things suddenly and seemingly inexplicably turn and leave most in the dust.
Put/Call Ratios-Sentiment Indicators-The VIX (Volatility Index) are all screaming "Buy...Buy...Buy", even as investors are redeeming mutual funds in droves. When this market does snap back it will be violent and profitable for those on board.
Can we still go lower...of course, but the downside is even more limited .
Once the S&P gets over 936.50 I believe the bears will be pressured to cover their shorts, and over the ensuing couple of days we could actually see a buying panic to match the selling panic we saw today.....You have to be invested to play..... (or stay in the darkroom!)
:: Henry Ford ::

4:03 PM
UPDATETook out 8000 by a good bit then rallied back... Monday will be exciting methinks....Too hard to call right now, but two scenarios leap to mind
1. Panic gap down on the open followed by rally into the close
2. Orderly rally from the open.

After everyone gets home tonight and turns on their computers or hears the news they will have all weekend to worry about what instructions to give their brokers Monday morning....Without more input I would guess on scenario 1, but we will wait to see,,,In any event we are getting some great bargains here and believe 60 days from now we are going to be pretty happy campers. Nobody is going to call the bottom to the day, but if you you aren't invested you can't participate.....
All of the issues we tossed out this morning, from the time we gave them, held up very well through the selloff in the afternoon..
:: Henry Ford ::

3:51 PM
UPDATE21.83 bil NYSE 2.145 bil NASDAQ on panic selling...they are going to send everybody home feeling dispair for the weekend....just had to go for the jugular and get the DOW under psychological 8000

:: Henry Ford ::

3:39 PM
UPDATEOK...we got the Sep Low out of the way...expect some overshoot here as stops run out on new short positions....Volume high
Decided to hold off on "Class" today with all the volatility, so will start on Monday
:: Henry Ford ::

3:14 PM
UPDATEPER and EMC looking like good candidates...short leash again under today's lows. Going for one more try at DOW Sep lows...got within 9 points last hour
:: Henry Ford ::

2:41 PM
UPDATEGOING FOR THE DOW SUPPORT
:: Henry Ford ::

2:20 PM
UPDATEAlso looking good at this point are AMD CIMA SMH and HD with short leashes..All making good bottom patterns with quick exits if trades go south...today's lows
:: Henry Ford ::

2:01 PM
UPDATEVolume Update...1.518Bnyse 1.632B nas ...getting bounces, but still haven't taken out DOW low. Coming into post lunch hour trading period

:: Henry Ford ::

12:42 PM
UPDATEAnother big name that looks close is BA. Closed its hourly gaps this morning and RSI near bottom ...waiting for hourly RSI to turn. Will put up a chart momentarily

:: Henry Ford ::

12:31 PM
UPDATEI think we are again very close to a very good trading low, perhaps a good bit more. NYSE Trin spiked to 6.03 this morning, 3rd highest of past few years, one of those higher spikes was Sep 21, the other was June 21 and meaningless. Looks like many averages that are tech related likley already bottomed, I think we may see the Dow spike below Sep print low of 8062, "then" we may get the "real reversal". We don't have to take that low out, market just acts at this point like it "wants to".(MD) Heavy heavy volume on down day, combined with high OB/OS numbers makes good case for washout.At 12:30 1.15B nyse 1.314B nas
:: Henry Ford ::

12:00 PM
UPDATENot much to do here until either the DOW low at 8062 is hit or we get a bounce. MANY MANY stocks shaping up for potential buys here. We are looking at IBM which has closed daily gaps and whose hourly RSI is at lower end of range. SLAB looking good on daily basis for local cup and handle breakout. Will add more to the list as we test lows today. I did not personally believe the DOW would sell off this far again, but fear is so pervasive that they are playing it for all its worth...
:: Henry Ford ::

11:08 AM
UPDATENDX 100 STILL HAS 64% POSITIVE STOCKS ON THE OPEN....
:: Henry Ford ::

11:05 AM
UPDATECycle low due in next couple of hours on all Indices..DOW looking to test against the Sept low target...NAZ is holding up very well ...best of the markets on a relative basis
:: Henry Ford ::

10:28 AM
UPDATE78% of NAZ 100 stocks up from open now from the open.46% of DOW. OEX has 60% pos. 32% of industries
:: Henry Ford ::

10:21 AM
MORNING GAPS
Now looking to get this morning's gaps filled.That is the obvious test and it may take a little doing, but once through solidly, bulls should be in charge after today's short side expirations payday.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:15 AM
LEADING INDUSTRIESFrom the opening selloff, fastest recovery coming from Semi's Insurance Software Internet services.
NDX techs XLNX/CPWR/ADCT/NXTL/TLAB/AMCC/GMST/PSFT/VTSS/VRTS/AMAT/CHKP
DOW SBC/INTC/AES/JNJ/BNI/YELL/MSFT/IBM
69% OF NAZ 100 stocks positive on the open
47% OF DOW positive
:: Henry Ford ::

10:09 AM
KEY TIMES DURING THE MARKET DAY FOR TRADERS
As you will see, there are key times that we look for during the trading day as being pivotal. Most days, the action centers around those times. Other times of the day are more suitable for a trip to the gas station or lawn bowling; Here are the pivot times we look at for signs of life: (All times are EST)
9:30-9:50...Approx first 20 minutes of trading day. Time when beginning traders lose money on whipsaws and experienced ones capture quick profits. Avoid if you are the former.
9:50-10:10..Oftimes a period of reversal for early morning trades. Market begins to settle into reality as early morning traders take their profits and swing traders look for opportunities.
10:10 to 10:25...usually a continuation of whatever trend was set up in last period.
10:25-10:35 ...A decision point for traders. Many times a turning point reversal or accelerated continuation of previous setup.
11:15-2:00...go bowling...this is the "dangerous time of day" . Traders lunch out and scalpers try to push the indices around to make a quarter here or there.
2:00-2:30...market usually begins to pick up steam:
2:30-3:00...called the 3:00 bubble, even on weak days can show strength into the next pivot point
3:05..if last period was just a bubble, will begin to break here, Otherwise can be a good pivot point.
3:25-3:35...for trending days, this is the time when trends tend to play out
3:40-3:45...can see reversals or acceleration into the close. Reason is that all floor traders have their MOC orders in and everyone has a pretty good idea where the closing range will be.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:04 AM
UPDATESorry for the late updates...logging provider had problems...great day for it.We will get caught up here shortly.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:54 AM
GOOD MORNINGExpirations drove the open and it was rough, but now bouncing after curbs. We need to wait for the first hour before we can make any judgement of next action.
:: Henry Ford ::

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