Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

3:55 PM
UPDATEWe have made it to the upper resistance line and it appears that will be it for today...Tomorrow could be a great day...barring pestilence/flood/indian attacks etc.etc.....
:: Henry Ford ::

3:22 PM
UPDATELooks like we got the flag breakout...This was the point at which we got confirmation of the flag. Now we need to see price exceed the upper trendline...shown here in yellow. If we break out from that we should be good for another 500 point run....

:: Henry Ford ::

3:12 PM
UPDATEBy the way...recalling that most effective trade indicator yesterday we saw in the Falling Wedge, the NASDAQ looks like it could be setting up for its own...The wedge is formed, we just need to see a breakout...I'll let you know it it develops as this would mean that finally we would have the three major Indices back in sync and we could see the same type of monster rally we had on the SP and DOW kick in on the NASDAQs as well...With all three supporting a rally we could really see some action...Falling Wedges are very rare at the bottom of steep declines but better than 90% reliable and once broken go up to 98% reliability.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:58 PM
UPDATESo far so good...SP500 bounced right off of the 50% retracement level on cue and has now rallied 10 points....to the top of the trendline...The DOW got within 25 points of the 50% level and reversed and it too is now challenging the top trendline once again. Getting to the 3PM bubble period where reversals can happen, so this may be the start of a major move once again or we may see it fizzle out. If we get a breakout from this level we will have formed a high tight flag pattern which, again is bullish and a continuation pattern...essentially a pause to refresh/recharge the stock supply chain before we can move on to higher prices....If this develops I will post the chart and targets.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:40 PM
UPDATEJust hit the 50% retracement level...now we see
:: Henry Ford ::

1:32 PM
UPDATEHere is how we construct the Fibonacci lines...(there are many more, but these are the basics. First we measure the price between the low and hi of the current trend...(this can be in any timeframe). Then we subtract 38/50/62% from the high (or add to low if trend is down). These are dynamic...that is, if the price continues to a new high(low) before retracing, you recompute and draw new lines. Most rudimentary charting programs have this function built in.

:: Henry Ford ::

12:43 PM
UPDATEHere is the same picture for the DOW....

:: Henry Ford ::

12:39 PM
UPDATEHere was the trend line break ...We will be looking for a minimum retracement to the 62% Fibonacci, but more likely the 50% line..both designated in red on this chart.

:: Henry Ford ::

11:55 AM
UPDATEComing into the "Noon Balloon" period when we can see a reversal occur. While DOW is up, the SP has not yet been able to match and could be forming a double top on very short term (5 min) chart...If this develops will throw up a chart and we will discuss.
:: Henry Ford ::

11:04 AM
UPDATE
:: Henry Ford ::

10:34 AM
UPDATEDOW has not had sufficient pullback to sustain this rally IMHO. More importantly, the SP futures which are the real market driver have not reached their upper resistance line of 865, so that is probably a better number to watch. Still expect and hope to see a pullback before higher levels. Cycles are right for a breather as well.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:15 AM
UPDATENegative Economic news is largely being ignored ...a good sign for the longer term....short term we still are overbought and should see some pullback. If we get above the bears fear level to the upside then we will see a melt-up as short covering and momentum players come into mix.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:50 AM
EARLY LEADERS

:: Henry Ford ::

9:24 AM
PRE-OPENINGHere is the closing chart from last night. I have drawn two lines...the Yellow represents a 32% retracement off of yesterday's low to high transition while the red line is a 50% pullback. We could go to test either one of these this morning while we get a needed consolidation if we are going to move higher. This consolidation would also help the temporarily high 13hour RSI (green on upper chart) and also the MACD's represented on the lower chart to get back into more neutral areas. The sloping red line is the upper resistance line which we nailed at the close yesterday. Now we will have to wait for the consolidation to determine what the next pattern will be. What we would prefer NOT to see would be a big immediate surge in price without some sort of pullback here to digest yesterdays's price action.

:: Henry Ford ::

8:55 AM
UPDATEDurable goods news will probably continue to be a negative on the open, but lost in the noise later in the day. At 10 am we have housing reports out which are liable to be on the positive side. We need some consolidation here after yesterday's rally, so we have been expecting and wanting a pullback this morning.....
[BRIEFING.COM] Here is the rundown of this morning's economic releases: Durable Orders fell 3.8% in June and fell 3.1% ex-transportation. As noted in the preview comment, this number is very volatile, and while this is clearly weaker than consensus, it's only one month and it's way too early to call it trend... Claims offered something of an offset, falling 21K to 362K, a healthy reading for the job market... Employment Costs were up 1.0% in Q2, a bit above consensus but of little consequence... Net-net, these reports are a mixed bag, with durables weak and claims pointing to strength.

:: Henry Ford ::

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