Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

4:02 PM
UPDATETHAT"S ALL FOLKS...Can't do any more damage today...Should selloff tomorrow, hopefully a spike down and quick recovery...gotta suck those bears in one more time.....Whole slew of economic reports due out at 8:30 before the market tomorrow, then at 10AM we have factory orders.....
:: Henry Ford ::

3:39 PM
UPDATE If a good break we are looking for the following targets:
DOW 8264.39
NDX 911.16
SPU2 852.50

Expect some overshoot...The DOW actual target is not as important as the SP and NDX
:: Henry Ford ::

3:33 PM
UPDATELooks like we are setting up to go out on the lows which would be a setup for the selloff tomorrow...Last time I said this it rallied to the top of the channel in the last 20 minutes...don't think so this time...
:: Henry Ford ::

2:59 PM
UPDATE Coming into the 3 PM bubble...on good days this is where we get a selloff...on bad days???
Next 15-20 minutes will set the tone for the close
:: Henry Ford ::

2:43 PM
CIRCUIT BREAKERS & CURBS
RESTRICTION----------------------------------TRIGGERED BY
NYSE collar (Rule 80A) -------------------DJIA moves 180 points
CME restriction 1--------------------------S&P500 futures contract moves 2.5%
CME restriction 2--------------------------S&P500 futures contract moves 5%
CME restriction 3--------------------------S&P500 futures contract moves 10%

NYSE circuit breaker nr. 1-------------DJIA moves 10%
NYSE circuit breaker nr. 2-------------DJIA moves 20%
NYSE Circuit breaker nr. 3-------------DJIA moves 30%

NYSE Collar (Rule 80A): Restrictions on program trading
This restriction is triggered if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) moves up or down by 180 points (for 2Q02). If this trigger occurs, program trading curbs are put in effect. Essentially a key computer is turned off, so program trading must be done "by hand." This rule is also known as the "uptick downtick rule" (more formally: index arbitrage tick test) because it restricts sells to upticks and buys to downticks. In other words, when the market is down (last tick was down), sell orders can't be executed at lower prices. In an up market (last tick was up), buy orders can't be executed for higher prices. This collar is removed when the DJIA retraces its gain or loss to within 100 points of the previous close.

CME Restrictions
Trading in the S&P500 futures contract is halted just for a few minutes if the prices moves 2.5%, 5%, or 10% from the previous close. Because restrictions on the NYSE effectively shut down trading in this futures contract, there is little need for additional restrictions on the CME.

NYSE Circuit Breakers
These restrictions are also known as "Rule 80B." The first version of this rule, adopted in 1988, set triggers at 250 DJIA points and 400 DJIA points. These restrictions are updated quarterly to reflect the heights to which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed.

10% decline (1050 points for 1Q01)
The first circuit breaker is triggered if the DJIA declines by approximately 10%. The restrictions that are put into place -- if any -- depend on the time of day when the circuit breaker is triggered. If the trigger occurs before 2pm Eastern time, trading is halted for 1 hour. If the trigger occurs between 2 and 2:30pm Eastern, trading is halted for 30 minutes. If the trigger occurs after 2:30pm Eastern time, no restrictions are put into place. (This restriction was first used during the afternoon of 27 Oct 97.) If the Dow Jones rallies 10%, there is no restriction, because program buying and the accompany rally is always perceived as "good."

20% decline (2150 DJIA points for 1Q01)
The second circuit breaker is triggered if the DJIA declines by approximately 20%. The restrictions that are put into place again depend on the time of day when the circuit breaker is triggered. If the trigger occurs before 1pm Eastern time, trading is halted for 2 hours. If the trigger occurs between 1 and 2pm Eastern, trading is halted for 1 hour. If the trigger occurs after 2pm Eastern time, the NYSE ends trading for the day. There is no trading halt if it rallies 20%, as that would be perceived as "very very good."

30% decline (3200 DJIA points for 1Q01)
The third circuit breaker is triggered if the DJIA declines by approximately 30%. The restriction is very simple: the NYSE closes early that day. There is no trading halt if it rallies 30%, as that would be perceived as "the best thing that ever happened in the history of the world."
The circuit breakers cut off the automated program trading initiated by the big brokerage houses. The big boys have their computers directly connected to the trading floor on the stock exchanges, and hence can program their computers to place direct huge buy/sell orders that are executed in a blink. This automated connection allows them to short-cut the individual investors who must go thru the brokers and the specialists on the stock exchange.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:26 PM
UPDATEMaking another run at taking out the lows--It is hard to do this in a single day without curbs being lifted. Once curbs are in place you have to have the DOW claw back 100 points from previous close before computer program trading can take place. I'll post the curb rules in a few moments.
:: Henry Ford ::

1:24 PM
UPDATEDOW and SP have bounced back inside of the lower channel ...still fooling around here...really grinding it out.
:: Henry Ford ::

12:57 PM
FOR THOSE WHO HAVEN'T SEEN IT YET
:: Henry Ford ::

12:08 PM
CURBS IN There go the curbs...We are also into lunchtime, so scalper heaven...expect some pushing and shoving by the local floor traders for the next couple of hours.
:: Henry Ford ::

12:01 PM
UPDATE The DOW chart lower on the page reflects a sideways consolidation channel at the top of a rally leg. If the break to the downside holds this will technically be termed a 'RECTANGLE TOP. down breakout" This pattern has the highest success rate of all bearish patterns....(Aren't you going to have some great stuff to talk about at your next cocktail party?...except if you talk stocks everybody is likely to treat you like a pariah!)
:: Henry Ford ::

11:39 AM
UPDATE To make this more than a momentary run on stops, SP500 futures now has to take out 883.50 they aren't making this easy...but then that's not their job.
:: Henry Ford ::

11:37 AM
UPDATEThe NDX gap sits at 911...expect some overshoot to take out stops and try to trap bulls into selling...
:: Henry Ford ::

11:29 AM
UPDATEIt is important that this gap be close this time around....If so, this should set the bottom for the NDX and close that Island we talked about and drew up the other day (see archives)..Once done and if bottom holds this index should see the same exponential growth we saw in the DOW last week, coming out of a very powerful falling wedge pattern as discussed..

:: Henry Ford ::

11:29 AM
UPDATEWill post a chart of the NDX momentarily...
:: Henry Ford ::

11:27 AM
UPDATEBroke through support on all indices now...
:: Henry Ford ::

11:09 AM
STILL HANGING IN Dragging out the suspense here....Indices hovering around lows (also lower support of last 3 days)...Consolidation before blast off?...or Consolidation before dropoff?....still no clear indicator, but as long as this trading range has been extending itself, whichever way it goes it is liable to be explosive.....
:: Henry Ford ::

10:30 AM
DOW UPDATE Here is the current view of the DOW ..notice the gap. ON any break of the lower support of this high level consolidation WE WANT to see that gap removed. Gaps are revisited better than 90% of the time within a week of their occurrance....98% close within a year. We don't want to have to come back down here again.

It's obvious looking at this chart where we want to be buyers and sellers. Above today's highs we buy..below we sell. We would wait at least 5 minutes after any break to make sure they just aren't running stops on the Indices.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:17 AM
UPDATE RIGHT ON LOWER SUPPORT LINE FOR SP500...HERE IS THE TEST
:: Henry Ford ::

10:06 AM
ECONOMIC RELEASEAs expected the importance of the ISM number at 10AM was not lost on the market and DOW has dropped 60 points since the announcement of lower than desired numbers.Though the ISM reading is still suggestive of growth in the manufacturing sector, the market is disheartened by the decline from the prior month as it feeds concerns about the pace, and sustainability, of the economic recovery... Separately, June construction spending was down 2.2% versus an estimate for a gain of 0.2%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1311/1308... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1125/1304.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:03 AM
LEADING INDUSTRIES AND STOCKS

:: Henry Ford ::

9:56 AM
UPDATEOK...finally got the gif posted in the right place...This site is running on 20mb fiber today, so should be super snappy for you....Notice that yesterday we closed near the previous day's high. I have drawn a red line across the highs of each day. For confirmation that this would be a double top on an hourly basis we would want to see the SP500 drop through the lows of the previous two days...so far we are just going sideways again. This could just be a sideways consolidation in which case a sharp break of those tops that holds for more than a few minutes should indicte another higher leg up. As I mentioned yesterday, I really would rather suffer some pain here and take the indices down to that next green support line which would close the last remaining gap. The DOW looks similar to the SP... We always take our cue from the SP futures because they are the real engine behind the markets as we follow them.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:31 AM
UPDATEHere is a chart of the market prior to the open...note the possible double top on this hourly view. Should this develop it will be the first pattern of the day we will analyze

:: Henry Ford ::

9:01 AM
GOOD MORNINGSo far looks like a gap down...will need to see how things settle out after 10am when the ISM report is released...it should be the primary driver once we get through the early volatility...[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.0. A negative bias persists in futures trade, which is signalling a relatively weak start for the major indices... Buyers showing restraint in wake of generally weak performance from foreign markets, an expectation for early profit taking following yesterday's late rally, and a lack of bullish catalysts this morning

:: Henry Ford ::

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