Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

3:48 PM
UPDATEWell, they decided they wanted to cover profits against risk of a negative forward looking report by CSCO tonight...I don't believe this move is indicative of any trend...we will just have to wait and see what the overnight trading looks like.
:: Henry Ford ::

3:23 PM
UPDATE So far it looks like my observation just before the hour was right on target. They have just been running these indices ragged around the pivot points, knocking out stops on either side...Still possible to see a move around 3:40 when traders put in their MOC (Market On Close) orders if there is a large imbalance.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:56 PM
UPDATE872.50 SP Sept Contract and 8400 DOW are providing brick walls right now as buying attempts to push much above are being rebuffed at those levels. Next 20 minutes should tell us what the BOYZ have in mind for the rest of the day.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:38 PM
UPDATEStill trending sideways in channel...If we don't see a break one way or the other after 3PM, then my guess is that they are going to close at or near these levels and have just been paving the way for the CSCO report that will come in after the bell. Forward guidance will be the focus and would drive tomorrows markets out of this range. When prices trend sideways like this for extended periods of time the ultimate move tends to be explosive...
:: Henry Ford ::

2:09 PM
UPDATEGetting some pullback here...the triangle and flag patterns look like they might fail here. ...could just be testing stops. SPU2 has support at 862 ...DOW 8315
:: Henry Ford ::

1:27 PM
UPDATEScalpers are still moving stuff around here hitting stops...nothing to do yet
:: Henry Ford ::

1:03 PM
UPDATESP500 has a little different looking chart on the five minute...It is a very tight pennant on flagpole with flat top and sloping rising bottom. The pattern on top is called an ascending triangle and has a success rate of about 68%, When price exceeds breakout by 5% that success rate goes up to 98%, about 58% of the time it will have a throwback to the breakout before going on to meet its target of an average rise of 44%. Percentage of times it meets its target is 89%.

:: Henry Ford ::

11:57 AM
UPDATEComing into the lunch hour and time when scalpers move stuff around on the floor while the "Big Boyz' go take an extended lunch. Shouldn't see any real action now until after 2PM....Set your alarms and take a nap....
:: Henry Ford ::

11:26 AM
UPDATEFive minute charts are showing a possible BULL FLAG (high tight flag) breakout...will put up a chart momentarily...(update:looks like a fakeout ...by the time I took a snapshot of the chart it fell back in the flag channel....still looks like it has some more consolidation before it's ready)These are very powerful formations with better than 83% success rate, but must exceed channel by 5% to be considered valid. The average rise after a breakout is 20% of the initial rally leg...likely rise is 25%. 63% of the time the likely rise is met or exceeded. About 20% of the time it will pull back (throwback) to the breakout line before moving on to its ultimate target.

:: Henry Ford ::

11:19 AM
UPDATE Just hovering here....In order for curbs to be lifted we would need to see the DOW get back within 100 points of last nights close, which doesn't seem like a reality this morning. With curbs on, program trading is halted and all orders are written by hand the way they used to do it in the old days. That's why you will see increases despite curbs being in place. For detailed description of curbs go to yesterdays archive.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:14 AM
UPDATE Well in 45 inutes we have recouped all of yesterday's losses in the DOW..This would be a natural spot for a rest, so wouldn't be surprised at some retracement of the indices at this point.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:00 AM
THE DOW AT 10AM No economic reports today
:: Henry Ford ::

9:48 AM
TRADE CLOCK
By popular request here is the trade clock once again for a general idea of where we normally see volatility throughout the day.

Restating the obvious Red zones are times for the amateurs to stay away, yellows are usually flux/change opportunities and green are usually continuations of current trends. First half hour is called "dumb money" when wannabees try to jump on a moving train ....last half is called "smart money" when traders set up their positions for the next morning.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:45 AM
UPDATE

:: Henry Ford ::

9:40 AM
UPDATE The way things are going we will see curbs on within a few minutes.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:39 AM
UPDATE Here is the hourly SP500 Futures contract, (the main driver for the markets) at 9:35...you can see the opening gap which is contained within yesterday's price action.

:: Henry Ford ::

9:14 AM
GAP UP MORNINGEuropean markets started this premarket run with the German DAX up nearly 4 %, followed closely by the FTSE and the CAC. While this won't create a gap on the daily charts of the indices, it will make an hourly gap. You saw how powerful these gaps can be as they act as magnets to draw back prices. Last week they clawed back 700 points out of the 1200 point rally. While gaps do NOT have to be filled, 90% are filled within a week and 98% within 1 year.....This open will break the declining tops trendline we made yesterday...I will put up a chart shortly after the opening.[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.5. Futures market off its highs of the morning, but still suggesting a strong open for the cash market... Bullish indication for stocks taking some steam out of the Treasury market, which is registering losses across the yield curve... Talk of a German asset allocation shift out of bonds and into equities gave the DAX Index, and most European bourses a healthy boost, that has carried over to U.S. trading

:: Henry Ford ::

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