Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

4:01 PM
UPDATEThat's a "WRAP" ...be back in the morning after those 8:30 Economic reports with the continuing saga...
These are the reports due out:
INITIAL CLAIMS
PPI
CORE PPI
PRODUCTIVITY
:: Henry Ford ::

3:58 PM
UPDATE For "Serge" who asked first...Here is a daily chart of the DOW showing the much larger triangle pattern that we are in the middle of.

:: Henry Ford ::

3:40 PM
UPDATEIf current DOW and SP numbers hold we will have confirmed the upside breakout. In 3 minutes floor traders will have all their MOC orders in place. If we come back down by the close then we would call this a possible double top for tomorrows action. Important economic reports due out before the market tomorrow. Remember ...57% of the time these breakouts pull back to the breakout line before moving on to their ultimate predicted target.
:: Henry Ford ::

3:18 PM
UPDATEBy the way, this symetrical triangle which is 11 days long is actually inside of a much larger triangle that will come into play as we approach 8600 on the DOW (dark blue descending line)...If it looks like we confirm an upside break we will start coverage of that pattern.
:: Henry Ford ::

3:03 PM
UPDATEWe are right on the upper declining trend line of the DOW right now. The SP still has a way to go
:: Henry Ford ::

2:45 PM
UPDATEThe way these triangle patterns work, when they are symetrical as this one, is that they generally break to one side or the other about 80% of the way to the apex. They have a very high success rate in the direction of the break. About 16% of the time the break will be premature and 57% of the time they will pullback to the breakout/down point before continuing on to their price target. Some technicians call these "coils" or "clock springs" because volume is generally light as they get to their breakout level at which time the move becomes explosive. We meaure the predicted move by taking the lowest point of the triangle, (which in this case is off the page at about 7600), and the highest point which is 8760. The predicted move is 20% of this range which in this case is 1160 (or 232 points) would be added to or subtracted from the break
:: Henry Ford ::

2:07 PM
UPDATEBack from lunch and they are taking it down once again..Here are the the trendlines on the DOW in yellow...we do not want to see the 8138 level broken to keep this large triangle pattern intact

:: Henry Ford ::

12:25 PM
UPDATELunchtime blahs...just pushing stuff around here...set your price alarms and take a nap...
:: Henry Ford ::

11:49 AM
UPDATEDOW took out 8251 momentarily, but SP Futures never did. ...got a bounce...still too early to predict ultimate direction, though my gut feel is we will end higher on the day. I'm still hedged waiting for a substantive break either way

:: Henry Ford ::

10:56 AM
UPDATEHere is the hourly snapshot of the SP500 futures contract...You can see the large triangle formation we are in right now. We have been fooling around at the 38% retracement level and the 50% Fibonacci support rests right on the lower rising trendline of the triangle
Chart should say 62% (or 38% off top)..not 68%...senior moment
:: Henry Ford ::

10:18 AM
UPDATEGot a little boost from report, but we are still in limbo zone...I am using DOW 8418 as the breakout and 8251 as the breakdown points for this session. This was the next to the last hour's range yesterday. Currently hedged, a break that takes out either of these levels for at least 5 minutes will set my bias in that direction. Longer term, I believe that the 7/24 low followed by a higher low on 8/5 has set the bottom in place. We just now need to make a higher-high which would be to take out the 7/31 DOW high. This would also break the long term declining tops trend line that currently sits at 8613. That should be the point where massive short covering sets in. If we can close above 8333 today that should be an easy step up to 8800.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:59 AM
UPDATEThey are closing those gaps up before the report release...they expected .1%or .2% got .3% so that is a positive bias for the market.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:51 AM
UPDATEGetting some of the retracement of morning gap now...Important Wholesale Inventory report due out in 10 minutes will set up the next hour.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:46 AM
UPDATE

:: Henry Ford ::

9:38 AM
UPDATEBig gaps up again this morning on hourly charts for SP and NDX. SP did not leave a gap on the daily, but NDX did, so that will most likely be retraced quickly.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:11 AM
KEY TIMES DURING THE MARKET DAY FOR TRADERS
As you will see, there are key times that we look for during the trading day as being pivotal. Most days, the action centers around those times. Other times of the day are more suitable for a trip to the gas station or lawn bowling; Here are the pivot times we look at for signs of life: (All times are EST)
9:30-9:50...Approx first 20 minutes of trading day. Time when beginning traders lose money on whipsaws and experienced ones capture quick profits. Avoid if you are the former.
9:50-10:10..Oftimes a period of reversal for early morning trades. Market begins to settle into reality as early morning traders take their profits and swing traders look for opportunities.
10:10 to 10:25...usually a continuation of whatever trend was set up in last period.
10:25-10:35 ...A decision point for traders. Many times a turning point reversal or accelerated continuation of previous setup.
11:15-2:00...go bowling...this is the "dangerous time of day" . Traders lunch out and scalpers try to push the indices around to make a quarter here or there.
2:00-2:30...market usually begins to pick up steam:
2:30-3:00...called the 3:00 bubble, even on weak days can show strength into the next pivot point
3:05..if last period was just a bubble, will begin to break here, Otherwise can be a good pivot point.
3:25-3:35...for trending days, this is the time when trends tend to play out
3:40-3:45...can see reversals or acceleration into the close. Reason is that all floor traders have their MOC orders in and everyone has a pretty good idea where the closing range will be.
:: Henry Ford ::

9:03 AM
GOOD MORNINGGonna be another of those big openings... Overseas markets were all up in the overnighs and SP futures were as high as 18.Backed off till 8:30 report release and have now rallies back up 13.5 with DOW futures back above 110 points. CSCO report last night was the impetus behind the overnight rally. Important Inventories number due out at 10 am will be next event. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +15.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +27.5. Overall bias remains firmly bullish with a slight improvement noted in the tech arena. The Nasdaq 100 PMI is now up 24.92 points. Mixed bag for biotech (cautious comments from Salomon vs FDA panel backing for GILD) with generally negative notes from Street on financials.

:: Henry Ford ::

12:51 AM
UPDATEAs of this hour all world markets are up with Tokyo up over 3%.CSCO news registered well after the bell, so if the trend continues we should see more gains pile on tomorrow.
:: Henry Ford ::

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