Henry Ford's MarketWatch LIVE!

4:46 PM
LAST DAY FOR MARKETWATCH LIVE ACCESS Just a reminder...We will be closing down our free access week to this log tonight....The RoundTable package includes all our services plus new developmental systems in the works. We anticipate putting the NDX 100 real time trading system online for educational use next month. This will be the only way to receive it while in development. If you are interested in converting an existing subscription or getting a new one contact us at 1-800-491-9951 M-F 8:30-5:PM PST or drop us an email to subscriberadmin@imfnet.com.
:: Henry Ford ::

4:26 PM
END OF THE DAY WRAPUP Tomorrow we have Retail Sales out before the open and that will probably set the tone for the open. The weakness in the dollar and the realization that the Fed is not likely to be cutting interest tomorrow, despite recent commentary from the Street, also helped keep buyers on the sidelines. Volume was very light with the exchanges barely topping the 1 bln level. Market internals finished moderately negative. DJTA -1.8%... DJUA +1.4%... SOX -1.2%... DOT -0.2%... XOI -0.5%... BTK +1.7%... Nasdaq 100 +0.1%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.05%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1494/1726... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1600/1752.
Here is the NDX 100 chart ...it looks similar to the others. As with the other Indices, we have a Bearish Rising Wedge that started forming on 8/6 bounded by the light yellow lines. This intermediate pattern broke on the open this morning, then traded sideways all day, finally closing the morning's gap. ...The larger pattern which is a symmetrical triangle bounded by the dark green and dark red lines which has not confirmed its break yet. If both of these are decisevely broken in the next few days we would look for the 50% Fibonacci line to be taken out at a minimum, but there is still a large gap down at the 860 area which could act as a magnet to draw prices down for another shot at a double bottom. A break above the highs of 8/8 should portend a rally which should put 20% or so on this index, so like all the others, even though this is the weakest it could go either way.

:: Henry Ford ::

3:58 PM
UPDATEAfter the bell I will throw up a NDX 100 chart ...thought I had updated one here, but a subscriber pointed out the error of my ways....Things have pulled back as anticipated and we remain hedged for tomorrow's action. We are still bullish in the intermediate term and cautious in the short term. Greenspan FOMC will be the focus tomorrow and if trading remains as light as today's record day we can expect a volatile session as a strong possiblility.
:: Henry Ford ::

3:46 PM
UPDATE They Closed the gaps on the NDX and the SP Futures.
:: Henry Ford ::

3:30 PM
UPDATEGetting an end of the day bump here, but still no indication that this is any breakout trend underway. We may close this morning's gap if we are lucky, but I don't see any higher moves in order. MOC orders will go on in a few minutes and that will set the tone for the close,.
:: Henry Ford ::

3:04 PM
UPDATE All Indices are back inside of the trendlines we have been watching, but prudence is still advised here...We are going to need to break that double top pattern before we can break out and I don't see that happening until Greenspeak at the earliest.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:40 PM
UPDATEStill in a tight range consolidation ever since the first hour this morning. All indices look near identical.
:: Henry Ford ::

2:01 PM
UPDATE Ok ...time to see what the Boyz have in mind ....volume is extremely light...
:: Henry Ford ::

1:32 PM
UPDATE SP and DOW have broken that lower trendline, so the Fibonacci retracements are probably in the cards, or could just be stops being run by scalpers...we will see how the hour plays out.Fibs come in around 881 SP Futures and 8461 DOW
:: Henry Ford ::

12:56 PM
UPDATE Here is the comparable SP500 Futures chart as we approach 1 PM. Notice the way price has hugged the bold yellow support line so far. The thin yellow lines duplicate the rising wedge pattern we discussed on the DOW chart earlier. You can also see evidence that the RSI (green thin line) has been retreating from its over bought stance since Thursday. The lower it gets the better to fuel any rally to come.

:: Henry Ford ::

12:42 PM
UPDATE So far the trendlines are holding but still need to see what the "Big Boyz" have in mind at the end of the day.RSI's still dropping nicely.
:: Henry Ford ::

12:39 PM
POWER OUTAGE We may experience a blackout on Thursday the 15th from 2:30 through the end of the trading day due to local electrical maintenance. We will be attempting to run on generator, but just wanted to alert everyone....
:: Henry Ford ::

12:18 PM
UPDATE Looks like we are into the doldrums here till after 2:-2:30 PM...good time for a snooze...I will set my alarm bells if anything breaks, but on light volume expect nothing more than traders pushing stops around.
:: Henry Ford ::

11:13 AM
UPDATE We are going to fool around here for a while...So far things are holding well within guidelines as we consolidate sideways and we are bringing the 13 hour RSI and MACD down. Looking at the cycle count, we would look for these indicators to bottom sometime tomorrow which can be accomplished either by a selloff or elapsed time...We prefer the latter of course. RSI for DOW is already below 50 this morning coming off its highs on Thursday....Ideally we would like to see it get below 20 before reversing and bringing in the next round of positive gains.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:31 AM
UPDATE Here is the 10:30 DOW chart. The Wedge from Friday night is shown in thin light yellow lines , while I have added a rising trend line which is providing at least temporary support here at 8567. Below that, the first light blue line is the 68% Fibonacci retracement line.

:: Henry Ford ::

10:12 AM
UPDATE At 10:30 I will post the current DOW chart so you can see the progress of the pattern we saw at the beginning of trading.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:11 AM
UPDATE Decline stalling here a bit, but still too early to call. I would expect that we will trend sideways to lower through Greenspeak time tomorrow...In the past markets have started rallying about an hour before speech time, but this time???....who knows. This decline is allowing overbought indicators from last week's 700 point run to correct towards neutral which is needed for any continued rally later this week...We need this consolidation to provide liquidity and the pause is desireable.
:: Henry Ford ::

10:00 AM
UPDATE Getting a little bounce here..DOW first line of support is at 8532 area...First line support for SP Futures is 893.50...there right now. 38% Fibonacci retracement would put the SP at 881....currently 894.50. 38% Fibonacci for the DOW comes in at 8461
:: Henry Ford ::

9:30 AM
HERE"S THE TRADING CLOCK"

:: Henry Ford ::

9:24 AM
UPDATE
GOOD MORNING! I will post Friday's closing chart of the DOW for reference this morning. For a detailed explanation click on "Archive" at the top of the left hand column and click on Friday's date...Starting out with weaker prices and a gap down but expect some volatility in the first half hour or so until we see what the final direction will be for the day.

:: Henry Ford ::

Disclaimer